Beijing's friendship with Tehran makes war in the region more likely.
Iran's threat to "punch" the West will exacerbate the worries of many people who follow events in the Middle East and are increasingly worried the world is sleep-walking towards a new regional war. The causes of this possible war are typically categorized as, first, Iran's determination to build nuclear weapons, and second, the world's apparent inability to stop it.
But a third cause often gets overlooked: If there is a war, a large part of the responsibility will rest with Beijing. China has assumed the status of a great power, including a veto at the U.N. Security Council. But instead of becoming a responsible member of the community of leading states, acting jointly with other powers to avert the prospect of wars, China is using its new-found power in ways that make war more likely.
China's military and diplomatic power have increased enormously over the past 20 years. But unlike the world's other leading powers, China is a poor country economically and a dictatorship politically. After decades of rapid growth, China's per capita GDP is still only $6,500–less than Ecuador or Angola, and only 14% of per capita GDP in the United States.
China's approach to Iran can be explained by the political situation at home: The Chinese people have come to expect constantly rising standards of living, and this the greatest weakness of the Chinese Communist regime. The Chinese people will tolerate the communists' monopoly of power only so long as their living standards keep rising.
The weak link in this system is China's inadequate energy sources. Even with coal, nuclear power and its huge hydro-electricity schemes, China is short of energy, and its dependence on imports is growing. Australia, as a major exporter of coal and natural gas, has been one of the major beneficiaries. But China's greatest need is for oil, and this Australia cannot supply.
China can buy all the oil it wants on the international market, but the communist leaders don't want China's prosperity—and their own hold on power—to be dependent on a free market they don't trust. They want control and certainty. They see the way to get these things is through deals with selected oil-exporting countries, preferably ones which are at political odds with western powers, so that their need for friends and protectors is greater.
This explains China's deep involvement with Sudan–one of the world's nastiest regimes, responsible for the deaths of up to 300,000 people in Darfur. Sudan now supplies nearly 10% of China's oil imports. It's a cozy deal–China gets a secure oil supply and Sudan gets arms and diplomatic protection. The Sudanese regime knows it will never face U.N. sanctions, because China uses its Security Council veto to protect it.
An even bigger supplier of oil to China is Iran. China now gets 15% of its oil from Iran, and is Iran's second-biggest customer after Japan. As with Sudan, China pays for its oil by protecting Iran against U.N. sanctions over its nuclear program. Even with Russia threatening to support sanctions against Iran, China's foreign minister has made clear that Beijing opposes sanctions.
This is a very dangerous game. President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is determined to build nuclear weapons and has threatened Israel with destruction many times. He may be bluffing, but this is not a risk Israel can afford to take. If the international community cannot restrain Iran, the government of Israel will face great pressure to take pre-emptive steps to protect the country against attack.
Thus, China's greed for secure oil imports and its willingness to deal with outlaw regimes to get these imports is causing a breakdown in the world's only system for disciplining countries that endanger peace. If the U.N. sanctions break down in Iran, this opens up a serious danger of war—and China will bear a heavy share of the blame.
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